Weekly newsletter: July 25, 2023
Hello, and welcome to the last week of July!
LRT.
I really wanted to talk about something else, but I realised I never addressed it directly with you, despite my many appearances in the media on the matter recently.
I can channel the same frustration and disappointment that’s always mentioned in the media, but our current situation is, bluntly, embarrassing.
Our LRT has become exemplary for other Canadian cities in what not to do. Calgary took our lessons from contract and project management for their Green Line LRT (which previous Council here interestingly ignored when approving the Stage 2 contract).
Montréal studied our challenges with ice on the overhead catenary system during freezing rain events for their soon-to-open REM.
Metrolinx and Québec City are paying close attention to our current experience with the Alstom trains, as they are also set to receive those trains for the Finch West LRT (Toronto), Hazel McCallion Line (Mississauga), and Québec City Tramway.
The Confederation Line has become a case study and a profile piece by schools of project management and media publications across the continent (or perhaps even the world).
The only bright point has been General Manager Renée Amilcar’s leadership in navigating the hot mess inherited by her and the current Mayor and Council.
Background
Responsibility for the construction and current maintenance of our LRT was contracted out through a public-private partnership (P3) by previous City Councils under former Mayor Watson.
The design-build of the project was awarded to a consortium of engineering, design, and construction firms under an umbrella organisation known as Rideau Transit Group (RTG). They are responsible for delivering the project and maintaining it until 2048.
As we’re all aware, construction of the LRT was delayed by several months and the initial system testing continuously failed.
Ultimately, political pressure applied by the former Mayor changed the pass/fail criteria of that testing, allowing the system to open prematurely, arguably before every element of the train was thoroughly and properly tested. But I believe the issues started way before that.
$2.1 billion
Based on the findings of the Public Inquiry report, I’m of the opinion the situation we are in started before any contract was signed — it started with the $2.1 billion price tag.
The report states the price tag, which became former Mayor Watson’s campaign promise in 2010, was based on a preliminary staff estimate from a few years prior with a margin of error of half a billion dollars. The price tag attached to the campaign promise also did not factor in inflation between when the estimate was made and 2010.
The firm price tag also meant several elements of the project had to be costed out, such as platform screen doors. No doubt other non-safety-critical, but important elements were also costed out or cheapened in some way.
Sure, we can continue blaming previous decision-makers and administrators, but I don’t think it does any good to look to the past. Wherever the blame may lie, the reality is we have inherited it and it’s now our job as your current City Council to fix it for good.
The current situation
What’s most disheartening for me was the period of very good LRT service that preceded the current service suspension. Despite some bad decision making on Canada Day, the LRT successfully transported thousands of Bluesfest attendees without a single issue.
That would have been worth celebrating and could have marked an inflection point in our relationship with the train, but it went the other way.
The issue that caused the latest service suspension was identified as the cause of the first derailment in 2021. Earlier this year, RTG and Alstom proposed a plan to increase the frequency of inspections. It was ultimately deemed unsatisfactory and rejected by OC Transpo as it doesn’t actually solve the problem.
Thankfully, as we learned yesterday, RTG and Alstom have agreed to redesign the axle assembly completely, although the design and testing work will take 12 to 18 months. In the meantime, the frequency of axle inspections and replacements will be increased.
Service restoration
As part of the safe return to service, OC Transpo demanded the following from RTG:
A thorough inspection of every single axle on every train (complete)
Track geometry measurements and instrument tests of a train running along the line to measure load stress levels (data to be received July 28)
Tear-down analysis by Alstom of the axle that caused the service suspension (data to be received July 28)
Upon analysis of the data, RTG and OC Transpo will plan for the safe return to service, which is current set for July 31. Right now, there are no details about the level of service that will be available upon that return, whether it’ll be at regular or reduced frequency, basically.
The future
As mentioned earlier, the proposed permanent solution won’t come for 12 to 18 months, plus bespoke testing for our track afterwards (standard practice—there’s manufacturer and then customer testing).
This means the fix won’t be quick, but I believe the increased inspections and replacements will be good mitigation in the meantime.
Concurrently, OC Transpo is reviewing all its services and piloting demand responsive services later in the autumn, which aims to improve the bus network and adapt it to current travel patterns and demands, but the LRT will always be an important part of our transit system.
This doesn’t just hurt transit riders; it also hurts residents who don’t use transit, because we all paid for it.
Confidence in the system will not come back right away. In fact, many residents may have given up altogether and purchased vehicles and/or parking passes. My wife and I are examples of that — we bought our first car after the second derailment.
I won’t sugar-coat it. Even once the permanent fix is found, implemented, and deemed successful, winning back customers and the public will be an uphill battle with weights tied to our legs.
But for now, let’s focus on the fix.
-Wilson