Weekly newsletter: April 22, 2025
Hi everyone!
Welcome to another week! I hope you had a restful Easter weekend.
OC Transpo service cuts
Effective Sunday April 27. Changes match service levels with actual resourcing.
Starting next week, OC Transpo’s bus network will undergo a major citywide change, affecting transit users in every community.
Despite the way it has been framed so far, the upcoming changes really are service cuts to match service levels with the resources we have.
Past procurement decisions have led to about half the bus fleet aging out at once. The majority of the buses still on the road were purchased in three large orders in quick succession from 2004 to 2011.
OC Transpo’s oldest buses are 20 years old and have had their midlife refurbishment, exceeding the typical 18-year lifespan of a city bus with the refurbishment.
New buses were ordered in 2023, anticipated to enter service and replace the oldest buses later that year, but persistent delays at the bus manufacturer means that order of buses began to arrive and enter service this year.
Bus manufacturers usually fulfill bus orders within nine to 12 months, and while delays during the pandemic extended that timeline, the two-year delay was not anticipated back then.
Many transit agencies in the province are also grappling with aging fleets for the same reason (eg. York Region’s oldest buses are 20 years old, while Toronto’s are 19), but none have as large a portion of the fleet aging out as we do.
Rather than large single orders, transit agencies typically place smaller orders each year as to stagger the age of the bus fleet. OC Transpo shifted to that staggered model in 2019, just before the pandemic, so future bus fleets don’t age out at once again.
We also placed an order of articulated buses one year ahead of schedule for delivery in 2027, anticipating the same manufacturer delays. They will replace the 49 oldest articulated buses currently on the road, which will be 18 years old in 2027.
An aging fleet has higher maintenance requirements, which has created pressure in terms of balancing revenue and maintenance hours.
In 2023 and 2024, the fleet situation was compounded by staffing shortages caused by the pandemic and questionable decisions leading up to the 2019 LRT launch. Though the worst of the staffing situation has been resolved, hiring continues to address regular attrition in the bus operator pool.
At a higher level, we’ve also never been creative about dealing with our systematic transit operational funding issues, relying instead on an outdated funding model and one-time cash injections, but more on that in a few weeks!
When the route review process began in late-2023, it was supposed to be a realignment exercise to match service with pandemic-era changes in demand that had taken hold for a few years.
The federal government’s addition of the third day in the office (sometimes known as RTO3) in 2024 changed travel patterns and demand, but by then, the fleet and staffing situations had taken hold.
It seems counter-intuitive, but the service reductions are aimed at improving reliability, as OC Transpo can’t even provide the bus service it currently advertises.
The 98 per cent trip delivery statistic from staff is misleading, because it masks the cancellation rate during weekday peak periods.
A few of the changes also introduces new connections to Line 2 and to areas previously unserved or underserved, but it is an overall net decrease in service levels across the community, considering Line 2 is not a good option for about half the ward.
As service reliability improves through staff and equipment stabilisation, we should be able to improve service, but that will probably happen gradually over a few years. I have a few that are top of mind, based on resident feedback, including relief for the Fallowfield—Tunney’s Pasture trip.
Transit service has more or less continually declined since the 2010s, so there is no good news with the upcoming service changes.
The service changes take effect Sunday April 27. To see how your commute will be affected, please consult OC Transpo’s travel planner↗, and set it to Sunday April 27 or later.
OC Transpo are also offering a weekend of free service↗ on Saturday May 3 and Sunday May 4.
Also, the bus shelter at Beatrice/Queensbury should be reinstalled in May, per staff.
That’s all for this week!
A reminder the federal election is Monday April 28. Please vote if you have not taken advantage of the advance polling days!
Take care!
-Wilson